After an up and down season in Dallas, what’s Ezekiel Elliott’s dynasty value?
The Cowboys’ offense was off to a scorching-hot start to the season in 2020. Dak Prescott was putting up MVP stats while Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys’ receivers were putting up excellent numbers. When Prescott suffered a gruesome injury in week 5 though, the Dallas offense predictably sputtered for the rest of the season.
While many presume that the Dallas receivers will bounce back, the same argument hasn’t been made nearly as much for Ezekiel Elliott. Despite that, I think Elliott’s relevance in dynasty doesn’t change at all. In fact, I think he receives the same boost the wide receivers if Prescott returns to the team; and even moreso if they go in a different direction at quarterback.
Despite the misconception that Ezekiel Elliot had a bad season in 2020, he was actually a Top-10 running back in fantasy football; doing this with the least amount of touches he’s had in a career since 2017.
Elliott faced the 8th most 8-man boxes (min 150 rush attempts) while still being able to maintain a four yards per attempt, while posting as the 13th most efficient rusher using the same 150 rushing attempt criteria.
He managed to do all of this while playing with three different quarterbacks and ceding touches to backup Tony Pollard.
I believe 2021 will be an entirely different story and that Ezekiel Elliott will be back stronger than ever, and here’s why.
Elliott has never finished outside of the Top-15 for fantasy running backs since he’s been in the NFL. His ‘down’ season still produced RB1 numbers, and there’s no reason to suggest there will be a downhill turn.
In 2019, Zeke signed an extension that makes him part of the Cowboys’ plans for at least the next two seasons (the Cowboys have an out after the ’22 season). Regardless of how impressive Tony Pollard has looked (and believe me, I’m a Pollard truther), Elliott will be the Cowboys’ lead-back until for the foreseeable future as he’ll only be 26 by the start of the ’22 season.
We know what Elliott’s value is with Prescott as the quarterback of the team. However, there have been questions concerning his value if Dak Prescott leaves. Honestly, I think that’s misled. If the Cowboys decide to bring in another quarterback I think it bodes well for Zeke.
Most new quarterbacks on any team rely on the person in the backfield with them the most, and that’s the running back. Zeke has proven to be a reliable outlet in the pass-game, and a durable runner throughout his career. He would be any QB on the team’s best friend, and that’s not just for the sake of making this article look good. The stats don’t lie.
So what’s Ezekiel Elliott’s dynasty value going forward?
People are selling Ezekiel Elliott right now. Don’t be that person. He’s locked into a multiple-year deal with job security, and his proven track record as an elite fantasy football player shouldn’t go unnoticed. Regardless of what happens at the quarterback position, Elliott will retain RB1 value going forward, and shouldn’t be sold for anything less than that.
Don’t sell now thinking you’re going to be ahead of the curve, because you’ll just be too early. Ride Elliott out until the ’22 season and re-evaluate from there.
You may have a little more confidence in zeke moving forward than I do, but you are right, selling now is a no win situation because of the generally soured outlook across the industry. You likely won’t get good value in a deal right now.
Its not so much that I’m high on him as it is that I believe that right now is his floor for the next two (at least) years.
He still has RB1 value, but no one is going to pay that tag for it. His value has fallen off a cliff in dynasty. (Not so much in redraft, for what its worth)
At a 3rd/4th round range (what I’ve seen in the last few startups/mocks) he’s a steal imo