Fantasy Football 2021: Shulman’s Sleepers – Week 13

Sleep has come in waves this week. I’ve been on nightmare duty for my 7-year old and midnight medication duty for my recovering wife. But less time unconscious means more time studying my fantasy football leagues, the waiver wire, and Week 12 performances to perfect my process. 

In truth, it also means more time scrolling TikTok and playing online chess, but that’s neither here nor there in fantasyland. 

I’m sleeping with one eye open this week, as I currently have playoff aspirations in 13 of my 19 non-best ball leagues. Right now, every fantasy football call matters.

Unfortunately, when it mattered last week, I came up short. As it does every week, accountability comes first. Let’s take a look at how I fared in Week 12.

Week 12 Review

Wins

Nada…

Losses

Tyrod Taylor, QB – Tyrod was the QB14 last week, as the New York Jets defense piled up five sacks. Taylor earned a QB rating of 91.5 and threw a beautiful ball to Brandin Cooks for a long TD. Unfortunately, he only threw the ball 26 times for 158 yards and barely used his legs in the Texans ninth loss of the season. There’s a lot of ‘ifs’ I could throw around here, but the fact is Taylor didn’t get it done for fantasy football managers. L.

Rex Burkhead, RB – There were some excellent RB performances in Week 12, but Rex Burkhead’s wasn’t among them. His usage was there, somehow ahead of David Johnson’s on this team, but he didn’t manage much against a stout Jets front. Burkhead finished as the PPR RB33 on the week. He managed just 15 touches in a negative game script. The fact is that Burkhead will need more work to become fantasy relevant. Although his 8.4 PPR points didn’t tank you, it’s not enough to give me the win. L #2.

Laviska Shenault, WR – This one hurts. Shenault saw nine targets and caught five balls, but he only managed 33 scoreless yards. Shenault’s average Depth of Target (aDoT) is typically pretty low, but Jamal Agnew’s injury made me and some others believe that his usage might differ. Though he was more involved, even a TD wouldn’t have put him above our 15 point threshold to qualify for a sleeper W. It’s a shame, but Urban Meyer just can’t be trusted; even with Dan Arnold now out. Yet another L.

Logan Thomas, TE – Thomas helped me make it 4-for-4 on Monday night. He dropped a TD in the end zone that would’ve catapulted him into the top-8 at the position… again still not enough to give me the W. John Bates caught three balls, taking away some of that positional upside as Thomas re-acclimated to the game. While Thomas should be even more involved after another week of rest, he’s definitely someone who didn’t help fantasy football managers in Week 12 as the PPR TE23. A fourth massive L. 

An O-fer in Week 12 puts me at 13-35 on the season… a 27% hit rate to-date. Given the risks I took last week betting on bad teams to come through, I’m going to be even more careful this week when choosing the guys you want to start. 

As a reminder, here’s how we’re defining sleepers and wins and losses

1. 1. Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top 100. 
2. 2. For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish inside the top 60 overall, though TEs are special so we’ll say a top 6 TE if not within the top 60. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.

Now that that’s out of the way, these are the guys I’ve got my eyes on this week.

Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 13

QB: Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints

Fantasy Pros ECR: QB15

Russell Wilson as the QB13 is intriguing; but the 49ers have been playing well enough on defense to leave me skeptical as he still continues to recover from a metallic finger. Though, if he plays poorly again, he’ll be a smash play at Houston in Week 14. 

As for my pick, Taysom Hill has only been awesome for fantasy football when on the field. The dude knows how to win and he knows how to find small holes in the defensive alignment to continually post positive plays. Add in a nose for the end zone, and Hill is a near-smash start as long as he’s the QB1.

With an average of 21.55 fantasy points in four starts in 2020, Hill should easily hit 20 points while the rest of the offense becomes wildly unpredictable. I’m starting Hill with confidence this week as a top-8 play.

Prediction: 220 yards, 1 TDs, 2 INT; 12 rushes, 60 yards, 2 TD  = 26.8 points

RB: Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts

Fantasy Pros ECR: RB36

As usual, it gets pretty hairy outside the top-30 RBs. McKissic is here, but he’s too boom-or-bust and dealing with an injury. Burkhead is also here again, but I clearly can’t trust the Texans. So, it’ll be Hines for me this week.

Nyheim Hines himself has been a boom-or-bust option for the past two seasons. Against a Texans team that just lost to the Jets and is clearly shooting for the #1 draft pick in the 2022 draft, I’ll take the Colts backup RB to see some extra usage.

I’m expecting Jonathan Taylor to get his early. That should give Hines more opportunities. In a blow-up game back in Week 9, Hines had 10 touches for 108 yards against the Jets, while also finding the endzone. His efficiency has been there all season, as he’s averaged nearly 5 yards per carry. He’ll need to add to his two TDs on the season to be relevant this week. 

Given the other options, I’m betting on Hines to find paydirt in this one. Though, if completely healthy, I love McKissic’s usage and upside.

Prediction: 8 carries, 35 yards; 4 receptions, 25 yards; 1 TD = 16.0 points

WR: AJ Green, Arizona Cardinals

Fantasy Pros ECR: WR48

Russell Gage intrigues me. Amari Cooper and Antonio Brown are also here and might play, but I can’t help looking at AJ Green’s target share in this offense without being optimistic. 

The Chicago Bears have been particularly susceptible to big games from opposing wideouts, giving up the 6^th most fantasy points to WRs in the NFL this season. No other skill position ranks inside the top-15 against the Bears, so it’s something the opposition has been able to exploit all season.

With DeAndre Hopkins due back, the depth chart is still crowded. Christian Kirk has had his games this season and Rondale Moore will see a few designed touches. Green has averaged almost 7 targets per game over the last month and Kyler Murray is due back in this one. 

There are a lot of factors at play that could turn against Green this week, but I’m willing to bet that Hopkins remains limited (if active) and Green wins his matchup handily this week.

Prediction: 4 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD = 16.0 points

TE: Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team

Fantasy Pros ECR: TE13

In a rare move by me (I don’t think I’ve done this in this column this season), I’m going back to the well; a week after Logan Thomas burned me and rolling with him yet again. 

The Las Vegas Raiders are the worst team against TEs this season. I expect Thomas to feast as QB Taylor Heinicke’s favorite target in this one. There’s not much analysis on Thomas this week from me. If you have him, he’s an easy plug-and-play, as a likely top-6 option. He had a TD last week that was called back after a questionable review. I’m certain he’ll be extra mindful when securing the ball in the end zone this week. 

You shouldn’t even think twice here. I call for a big game from Thomas for the second week in a row. This one’s a W already. Book it. 

Prediction: 5 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD = 16.0 points

That’s it for this week. As you’re eyeing your fantasy football lineups be sure to consider the guys above, as I bet all of them will have an eye for the end zone this weekend.

And, as always, good luck!