We only have four weeks left in the fantasy football season. As we all shift towards making the infamous playoff push. We have arrived in Week 10, and the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pack.
This train is rolling. A perfect 5-0 performance in Week 9 puts us at 29-16 on the season. That’s a robust 64% hit rate on the year. We have taken our game to the next level in the last three weeks, going 14-1 (93%) on those recommendations. While it’s unlikely I will continue at that absurd hit rate, I have been improving my craft this year to give you the best advice I can each week.
QB: Aaron Rodgers 23.20 Projected Points
The quarterback who generated the most pass EPA has won MVP in every season in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
This season, Matthew Stafford has generated almost twice as much pass EPA (+114.3) than the next closest QB (Dak Prescott: +62.2).#RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/7hESbiI2vp
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 4, 2021
If you are looking at the matchup against Seattle and thinking it’s a lock that Rodgers is a top-12 play this week, you have not been paying attention to the difference in Seattle the last three weeks.
Seahawks Defense splits have caught my attention, as they have been two different teams.
Weeks 1-5: 305.6 Passing Yards/Game, 9-2 TD: INT Ratio, -63.81 Expected Points. 20.50 Fantasy Points Allowed/Game
Weeks 6-8: 221.Passing Yards/Game, 3-1 TD: INT Ratio, 11.71 Expected Points. 13.12 Fantasy Points Allowed/Game
The schedule has played a bit into that, but it’s not the entire reason. The defense has played better in their matchups. Even with Rodgers returning from Covid, I am hesitant to 100% trust him in this matchup. We saw how bad the Packers offense looked without him against Kansas City in Week 9. Add in that Rodgers is averaging almost five points less than last season, I am worried that the projections are too steep for me to count on him hitting.
* If Rodgers is unable to return from Covid, I am pivoting to Tannehill as my fade at 20.35 Projected Points.*
RB: Michael Carter 12.48 Projected Points
Michael Carter and Ty Johnson targets per route run w/ Zach Wilson vs Mike White
Wilson:
◽️ Carter (2.8 🎯/gm ) – 25.9%
◽️ Johnson (2.6 🎯/gm) – 20.3%White:
◽️ Carter (11.5 🎯/gm) – 46.9%
◽️ Johnson (6.5 🎯/gm) – 54.2%White has targeted RBs on 45.3% of his pass attempts 👀
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) November 3, 2021
Nailing this call centers on Zach Wilson being the starter in Week 10. If the Jets have the check-down king Mike White under center, I am not as bullish on this projection for Carter. White has boosted both Michael Carter and Ty Johnson. Zach Wilson is not the same type of QB, as the Time to Throw stat highlights their difference. Among qualified quarterbacks, here is how the Jets signal-callers rank.
- Mike White: 2.63 Seconds To Throw 5th in NFL
- Zach Wilson: 3.10 Seconds to Throw 39th in NFL
Lastly, Buffalo is 31st in fantasy football points allowed to RB on the season. Carter will have difficulty hitting that projection either way, especially if Zach Wilson is under center in Week 10.
WR: Tyreek Hill 19.58 Projected Points
Why do my Tyreek Hill projections look like Keenan Allen projections? pic.twitter.com/O220Am2Ur4
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 9, 2021
When you look at the Raiders, you do not expect them to be good against wide receivers, but that is precisely what has occurred. With the duo of Hayward and Hobbs, the Raiders have one of the better corner tandems in the NFL at the moment. Add the pair of Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue to rush the passer. These players have led to teams struggling against Vegas through the air.
Teams have had more fantasy football success on the ground against the Raiders. One thing to keep an eye on is the Chiefs line. They have given up 55 hits to the QB position, 27th in the NFL. If the Raiders continue to generate pressure at a high rate, it will put a damper on Mahomes, Hill, and the rest of that offense in Week 10.
TE: Dalton Schultz 12.49 Projected Points
Highest % of routes run per dropback (TEs) Wk 9
Travis Kelce 98%
Evan Engram 96%
Tyler Higbee 93%
Dalton Schultz 91%
Zach Ertz 87%
Darren Waller 86%
Mike Gesicki 84%
Dallas Goedert 83%
Tommy Sweeney 80%
Adam Trautman 77%
Kyle Pitts 76%
Mark Andrews 75%
Dan Arnold 75%
Albert O 71%— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 8, 2021
I wrote about Schultz a few weeks back as a fade due to the matchup. However, the reason I am fading Schultz this week has to do with the addition of Michael Gallup. The Cowboys anticipate Gallup returning this week and resuming his role as the 3rd option in the passing attack. Therefore, I see it having the most significant impact on Schultz moving forward this year.
Without Gallup in the lineup, Schultz has seen his Target Rate or targets per route run jump from 16.8% in 2020 to 28.4% this season, currently ranking him 4th in the NFL in that category. The target rate has made up for his drop-in snaps and routes run. The routes run were 33 per game last year. Through week 9, Schultz sits at 22 routes per game.
That is a massive drop in one year. The Cowboys ability to prioritize Schultz when he is on the field is helping to offset his overall decline in snaps and routes. I do not know how long that trend can continue with a healthy Michael Gallup expected to eat into the overall passing volume. Schultz likely moves into a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 in that offense.
Flex: Adam Thielen 15.38 Projected Points
Adam Thielen had 6 yards today – he now has 50 or less yards in 5 of his last 7 games
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 8, 2021
Thielen has once again proven that he is a good fantasy football wide receiver. As a result, the decline so many have anticipated (myself included) has turned into a swing and a miss. Thielen has seen his target rate increase this season. The Vikings have consolidated the targets between Thielen and Jefferson, as the injury to Irv Smith has allowed Kirk Cousins to focus on targeting those two receivers. Thielen has seen his touchdown rate drop to 13.6% on the year, which is 2nd in the NFL. It shows just how ridiculous his touchdown rate of 18.6% was last season.
Minnesota gets the Chargers in Week 10, a defense that has shut down opposing wide receivers. DeVonta Smith was the just 2nd WR to clear 80 yards against them with his performance in Week 9. The other was CeeDee Lamb in Week 2. Only the Bills allow fewer yards to wide receivers this year. Given that Thielen is currently ranked 40th in yards per game, if Las Angeles can keep him out of the endzone, he will fall short of his projection.
Jesse Moeller
Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.