Fantasy Football: Five Players to Avoid in Week 13

The King is dead, or it certainly feels that way after the news broke of Christian McCaffery landing on season-ending injured reserve. It truly is the end of an era, as the days of CMC being the consensus 1.01 in fantasy football drafts is over. Not only did we lose CMC, but we also lost Dalvin Cook, Deebo Samuel, D’Andre Swift, and Darren Waller in the same weekend. It shook up countless leagues, as each player was a vital part of fantasy football rosters. Thankfully for Swift and Waller, the news is not as grim, as they hopefully will be back sooner rather than later.

In my 20+ years of playing fantasy football, I cannot remember a season where so many big-name players have missed significant time. Let us hope that in Week 13, the injury gods are in a better mood.

QB: Josh Allen 24.20 Projected Fantasy Points

Would you look at that… Josh Allen is 110% still in the MVP race. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/kXg8sDNMsv

— Christoph (@Dufficy716) November 29, 2021

Allen is an exceptional talent and, in a “down season,” is currently the QB1 in fantasy PPG. For those of you who decided to fade Allen this offseason, you are likely regretting it. Why I put Josh Allen on the list this week is because the matchup is no joke.

This year, the Patriots defense has been lights out, cutting average fantasy quarterback production down by 24%, which leads the league. Additionally, the defense leads the league in percent of drives without a score and percent of drives ending in a turnover. Translated, quarterbacks who go against the Patriots continuously fall short of projections. Therefore, it would be an excellent plan to temper expectations for Allen this week.

RB: Darrell Henderson 17.72 Projected Fantasy Points

Darrell Henderson's role is really strong when healthy, as he was yesterday:

* 50-of-62 snaps
* 16-of-19 RB carries
* 33 routes on 42 Stafford dropbacks
* 4 targets for a 10.3% share

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 29, 2021

Henderson has had a productive season for the Rams. While fighting against the theme of being oft-injured, Henderson is currently a top-13 RB in fantasy football. He’s a top-14 RB in PPG due to how decimated the running back position has been this season. His running mate Cam Akers, being one of those running backs to have been lost for the season.

What worries me this week is a quad injury that will either keep Henderson out or cut his workload down. This week, the Rams will involve Sony Michel more to help Henderson recover from the injury, making it harder for him to live up to that projection. While Jacksonville is by no means a good team, the defense has been league average in fantasy points allowed across the board.

WR: Ja’Marr Chase 16.39 Projected Fantasy Points

Ja’Marr Chase’s first seven games are historically efficient. His last four games are remarkably inefficient.

First seven avg:

7.2 targets – 5/107/.9

catch% – 69%

YPR – 21.5

YPT – 15.0

Last four avg:

7.8 targets – 3.8/38/.5

catch%- 48%

YPR – 10.0

YPT – 4.9

Cont…

— Pharaoh of Phantasy ⚖️ (@DTC_IzzyE) November 29, 2021

Analysts chase targets because the more targets you earn, the higher likelihood that fantasy production will follow. When you add efficiency to workload, that is when you get an extraordinary fantasy football player. What Chase was doing early this season was blowing every expected metric out of the water; especially for a rookie wide receiver as he was winning what seemed to be every deep target. As Chase regressed to the mean, the fantasy football production tapered off. Chase’s Yards/Reception highlights this:

• Games 1-7: 21.54 Yards/Reception
• Game 8-11: 10.13 Yards/Reception

This week Chase gets the Las Angeles Chargers, who smother opposing wide receivers to the tune of 31st in fantasy points allowed and 30th in Points Over Average Allowed. Add in the Chargers being a run funnel defense, and Joe Mixon is the player who will benefit the most from this matchup. Chase is a stud, but this is the week to dial down his projections.

TE: T.J. Hockenson 11.74 Projected Fantasy Points

In two short years T.J. Hockenson went from "can't wait to get to work, coach!" to Season 8 "I'll stare a dragon straight in the face" Jon Snow pic.twitter.com/WN4IkUlouj

— Trevor Sikkema (@TampaBayTre) November 29, 2021

I do not know what to do with T.J. Hockenson in fantasy football. The Lions offense has been a letdown outside of D’Andre Swift, and defenses have realized that the Lions do not possess the wide receivers to beat them. So they are shifting coverage to take away the one credible receiving threat that Detroit possesses. With Swift expected to be out this week, it puts a damper on Detroit’s offense. What helps Hockenson in fantasy is that the tight end position is a wasteland. He is still a borderline must-start but is trending in the wrong direction. The Vikings have athletic linebackers who can stay with Hockenson in coverage, as it plays right into the Vikings’ strength. Hockenson is a sit if you have a decent option to play.

Flex: Elijah Moore 12.96 Projected Fantasy Points

Zach Wilson, if you ruin Elijah Moore, the fantasy community will never forgive you.

— Jon Helmkamp (@JonHelmkamp) November 28, 2021

Elijah Moore has come into his own, and it has been a joy to watch the veteran quarterbacks let Moore do what he does, which is create fireworks on the football field. The problem is twofold for Moore this week. First, Zach Wilson is back, and the rookie has struggled this season as he is 31st in Total QBR. Wilson is the type of quarterback who holds onto the ball, looking to make plays, where both Flacco and White get the ball out at a much quicker rate. The differences are striking when you compare statistics. Second, the Jets are playing the Eagles. A team that shuts down wide receivers. Keenan Allen and Tyreek Hill are the two receivers to surpass 100 yards against the Eagles. It will be a difficult matchup for Moore with a quarterback learning the position in real-time. I will take the under for Elijah.