We flew too close to the sun in Week 10. Testing our limits of how we could fly. I picked against Tyreek, and we saw Mahomes and Tyreek put on a clinic against the Raiders vaunted pass defense. It was a reminder that elite players can beat the best of matchups. It’s why the phrase “Start Your Studs” has gained traction in the fantasy football community; as there is nothing worse when studs put up a monster performance on your bench. Even with the brutal loss to Tyreek, we went three for five in Week 10; and on the season sit at 32-18.
QB – Justin Herbert 21.20 Projected Fantasy Points
The Chargers have fallen to 5-4 after a scorching hot 4-1 start and it's time to talk about the offense.
Justin Herbert is not the issue. Full stop.
The offense is suppressing his talents and it's hard to watch.https://t.co/PMibRK6H8R— Seth Galina (@pff_seth) November 15, 2021
During his short time in the NFL, Justin Herbert has proven that he is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. I would only choose a handful of quarterbacks ahead of Herbert when it comes to fantasy football, as Herbert is putting together his second consecutive top-10 fantasy season. He has proven that he will be around a long time in the NFL.
My issue is with the matchup this week. The Steelers pressure the quarterback and limit points allowed. The Steelers are top-4 in Pressure and Hurries Per Dropack this year. Los Angeles’s defense will put the clamps on Big Ben (or Mason Rudolph) and the passing attack on the other side of the ball. Lastly, this matchup will highlight the running backs for both teams. Ekeler and Harris are the players to invest in this week.
RB – Jonathan Taylor 18.84 Projected Fantasy Points
JT since October:
🔥 7 games
🔥 10 total touchdowns
🔥 999 total yards pic.twitter.com/EMHBG5k79r— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 14, 2021
This week we are given a matchup of the best running back versus the best fantasy football defense. Jonathan Taylor has been on fire this year. From week four on, he is averaging 25.6 fantasy PPG. That would be an all-time season from Taylor. It is almost identical to the 25.2 PPG Alvin Kamara averaged last season as the RB1 in fantasy football.
Taylor welcomes Buffalo, giving up 24.3% less fantasy PPG to running backs than the average team. Buffalo has shut down running backs, with one exception. In week six, Derrick Henry ran all over Buffalo on Monday night. It was out of character performance for the Bills, to the point that if you remove the Henry game, the yards/carry drop down to 3.17 from 3.67. Buffalo’s defense has been one of the better units in football. I’m expecting them to limit Taylor’s ceiling this week.
WR – Terry McLaurin 15.49 Projected Fantasy Points
Catch of the Day Candidate: Terry McLaurin #WFT pic.twitter.com/aIY1I6xglg
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 14, 2021
After icing the Tampa bay game with a catch, Terry McLaurin let out a roar to remind everyone that he was here and not going anywhere. Regrettably, McLaurin has had an up and down season that has felt like 2020 Tyler Lockett; three blowup games and not much else. So who is McLaurin facing this upcoming week? Just the Carolina Panthers, one of the best teams in fantasy points allowed to the WR position this year. In the last three games, Carolina has allowed 184 yards combined to the position. I struggle to see McLaurin outscoring his projection this week.
TE – Zach Ertz 11.95 Projected Fantasy Points
How Zach Ertz pulling up to Arizona after that TNF losspic.twitter.com/npnc7yNAIF
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) October 15, 2021
This projection does not have to do with the matchup, even though Seattle has been solid against the tight end position. What concerns me is who will be throwing the ball to Zach Ertz this week. Kliff Kingsbury said that it would be a close decision if Murray is to take the field this week. If Murray can’t go, you’re counting on Colt McCoy to get the ball out to the skill players. We saw how that went last Sunday. Ertz goes from a backend TE1 with Murray to a TE you cannot start. It completely wipes any upside Ertz has. Look to replace Ertz if Murray is not the starter on Sunday.
Flex – Diontae Johnson 16.17 Projected Fantasy Points
Diontae Johnson led the NFL in drops last season with 14…
In 2021 so far:
⭐️ 82 targets
⭐️ 1 drop(📸 @steelers) pic.twitter.com/aUzVvzoIss
— PFF (@PFF) November 15, 2021
I hit on this topic earlier when talking about Justin Herbert. Diontae Johnson is a target hog, as he is top-5 in Target Share this season. Even after the Lions/Steelers disaster, Johnson has a hefty 29.2% Target Share. Big Ben should be back this week as he recovers from Covid. If he is out again in Week 11, you can fade Diontae because his quarterback is not Roethlisberger.
If Ben is active on Sunday, the matchup is worrisome. Los Angeles shuts down opposing fantasy wide receivers. They have the horses to compete with any wide receiver group and are called a run funnel defense. They would prefer it if you run the ball and scheme the defense to incentivize it. With corners Samuel and Davis expected back, the run funnel will continue this week. Najee Harris is the Steeler to play in this matchup.
Jesse Moeller
Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.